With less than 100 days until the midterm elections, candidates are starting to line up to run in El Paso and the leadership of the two parties is starting to fray as money pressures and dropping poll numbers make predicting the election outcomes much harder. In El Paso, because of the Democrat strong-hold on the electorate, the state and national elections are but a blip among the voters leaving the four-city council open seats the election game in town.
Even if every local Republican in El Paso were to vote, the outcomes of the state and national elections will not change. But locally, an anti-incumbent sentiment that continues to rise after Democrats David Stout and Sergio Coronado were ousted by fellow Democrats in March, not to mention the datacenter movement putting pressure on the incumbents opens the door for the local Republicans to make a statement in the local elections in November.
Locally, the Republican Party – as has been the case for years – seems content to talk among themselves about get-out-the-vote strategies without mobilizing an effective ground game to motivate local Republican voters.
But the local Republican voters aren’t waiting for the local party to mobilize local Republicans for the city council seats as they have been surging on their own since 2024 without party help. Add to the local political drama is the apparent lack of party money among the Democrats that has led to “shouting matches” and “phone-throwing drama.”
Locally, the Democratic Party doesn’t seem to be mobilizing, leading some party officials to work to get the local party behind city council incumbents facing voters intent of ousting them from office.
Anti-incumbency is sweeping the nation led by rising grocery bills, higher electric bills and the META datacenter. Republicans, likewise, are facing a revolt by party loyalists dues to rising costs and labor problems with immigration enforcement.
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The Immigration Imbroglio
El Paso congresswoman, Veronica Escobar, acknowledged that she knew the Democrats would lose the 2024 national elections because of immigration.
Escobar has abandoned her national platform on immigration and border issues and instead seems to be focused on campaigning locally, which raises the question, is she afraid of being unseated by Adam Bauman, or more likely, losing control of the local political scene as incumbents continue to lose locally. Bauman is not a credible challenge to Escobar at this moment. His campaigning is being overshadowed by the Greg Abbott campaign locally, which has more ongoing canvassing activity then Bauman or the local Republican Party. Abbott’s effort is being led by Vanessa Garcia who is actively organizing local Republican candidates to canvass for Abbott at the expense of their own campaigns.
Bauman, a former Border Patrol agent and a former member of the controversial Border Patrol Tactical Unit (BORTAC) team, is curiously silent on the immigration issue. BORTAC, based in El Paso, first appeared in publicly in 2000 as pictures of a little boy named Elián González, who was visibly scared and crying was forcefully taken by an agent, simply known as “Member 3” holding an assault weapon made headline news across the country.
BORTAC was created in 1984. According to former Border Patrol Agent Jenn Budd, BORTAC has a culture of racism that the agency “has quietly tolerated.” In 2019, ProPublica exposed a Facebook page run by Border Patrol agents with almost 10,000 members that critics have said shows “further evidence that a culture of casual racism and misogyny was festering within the Border Patrol.”
Bauman’s campaign website focuses on local issues like “lower property taxes,” and local small businesses under the tagline, “El Paso FIRST,” while touting his BORTAC bona fides for border security while not addressing immigration. These are issues that have little to do with representing El Pasoans in congress. Curiously, Bauman’s website’s primary color is blue and almost completely devoid of the red color, commonly associated with the Republican Party.
But Bauman isn’t the only candidate ignoring the immigration imbroglio in the race for Escobar’s congressional seat. H.R.3227, which is pending before several House Committees has 11 cosponsors. Conspicuously absent on the co-sponsor list is Escobar. There are seven Democrats as co-sponsors and four Republicans. The Farm Workers Modernization Act of 2025 seeks to establish guest worker visas for foreign agricultural workers.
Among the issues giving Texas Republicans headaches heading into the November midterm elections is immigration, along with the economy. Texas business owners are pushing back on immigration enforcement across Texas arguing that it is affecting their bottom lines. A June poll shows that Texas Republican voters are concerned enough about the economic impacts of immigration enforcement that they may consider voting against candidates touting deportation as an issue.
Republicans are now worried that Republican voters may stay home in November, or worse, considering voting for Democrats as economic problems are forcing them to rethink their support for the Republicans. A three-time Donald Trump voter in Iowa, Lance Sulentic told The Washington Post that “the worst three mistakes I’ve made ever made in my life” was voting for Trump. Sulentic says that higher gasoline and food prices make him feel betrayed by Trump.
Outgoing Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) told The Washington Post that “he fears the party’s brand has been damaged among moderates by the economy.”
Recent polling shows that more Democrats than Republicans will vote in November. But that does not seem to be translating among El Paso Democrats as the local Democrat Party seems to be stagnating going into the elections. In 2024, there was a proxy war among local Democrats for control of the local party apparatus. It seems to have settled around Renard Johnson and Escobar leading the local party. Johnson was heavily supported by state Republicans and by Escobar in 2024.
But locally, Republican voters have been surging since 2020. An analysis of the most recent voter data suggests that Republicans are now outnumbering Democrats in several precincts and in some cases overwhelmingly.
That along with national economic issues, the issue of immigration and a rising anti-incumbency nationally and locally threaten the city council seats currently held by Alejandra Chávez, Chris Canales, Art Fierro and Ivan Niño.
As of this morning there are five challengers. Four have filed to run and one filed a treasurer designation suggesting he will be running for Fierro’s seat. Challengers Sam Armijo and Matthew Kozik are seeking to unseat Chávez. Chávez filed paperwork signaling that she will be on the ballot defending her seat in November.
Seeking to unseat Fierro is Pedro D. Fernandez and Claudia Contreras Sillar Motta. None have filed their applications to be on the November ballot.
There are three challengers seeking to take Canales’ seat. They are Arturo Alluin, Matthew Guzman and Laura Ochoa-Todd. Only Alluin and Ochoa-Todd have filed to be on the November ballot.
As of this morning, no one has filed to run for Niño’s seat.
Registration to run for city council is ongoing. It closes on August 17th.
Although Cynthia Boyar Trejo is not up for reelection, she may be forced into the November ballot if an ongoing recall against her succeeds next month.
Behind the political scenes is a national anti-incumbent mood that “is sweeping across the nation.” Nationally, incumbents are faring poorly in elections. Locally, the anti-incumbency mood was clearly on display when Democrat stalwarts Sergio Coronado and David Stout were unceremoniously ousted in March.
This may have been the reason that Escobar feels the need to canvass locally, not for her seat, but to keep loyal Democrats in office.
But threatening the incumbents is not just the anti-incumbency mood but the ongoing META datacenter controversy that each day seems to worsen and embolden young activists with no clear solution on the horizon. META is scrambling to tamp down the controversy while the incumbents are desperately looking for another issue to distract the weary voters.
Unless things change in the coming 30 days, it is likely that El Paso city council incumbents, to include Boyar Trejo, may see their reelection bids face existential demises.