Texas Republicans have spent much of the past decade expanding what once seemed like an unshakable statewide advantage. The party has not only maintained its hold on every statewide office, but it also made surprising gains among Hispanic voters in recent elections, particularly along the Rio Grande, undermining Democrats’ long-held expectation that demographic change alone would eventually make Texas competitive.
Democrats like Beto O’Rourke have been pushing the “turn Texas blue,” narrative for years, and, in the case of O’Rourke running for office – twice – on the belief that the Republicans are losing their stranglehold on Texas. It hasn’t happened, but the narrative continues. John Cornyn’s loss to Ken Paxton has added a new dimension to the belief that Texas Democrats can win.
Republican voters outperformed Democrats in the rural areas of Texas in the March primaries. But in key areas like Austin, Dallas, Houston and along the Rio Grande, the Democrats surged. In Dallas, Democrats saw a 12% increase in voters while in Austin, there was almost an 18% surge of Democrat voters. El Paso barely scraped by with an 8% increase in Democrats, while Republicans to the east, in Hudspeth, surged 16%.
As the November 3rd general election approaches, Texas Republicans are facing a difficult political landscape. Recent developments suggest the two issues that delivered Republican gains is being tested from two directions – the consequences of Donald Trump’s intensified deportation campaigns, and the increasingly populist MAGA-aligned base transforming the Texas Republican Party.
Although neither issue presents the Democrats with success at the ballot box, together they present Texas Republicans a complicated election cycle. At the center of the complication are Hispanic voters rethinking their support of Trump and immigration enforcement.
Immigration Hitting Close to Home Forces a Reckoning Among Republican Hispanics
Immigration has long been one of the Republican Party’s strongest political issues in Texas, especially when tied to the narrative of border security. Voters concerned about border security helped fuel Republican gains across South Texas, where many traditionally Democratic Hispanic communities shifted toward the GOP over the past several election cycles. In March, South Texas voters turned to the left.
According to recent reporting from communities across South Texas, the Trump administration’s expanded deportation effort is producing ripple effects beyond border security and into immigration policy. Businesses that rely on immigrant labor have reported workforce disruptions, while many Hispanic families – including U.S. citizens and legal residents – have expressed growing anxiety over the breadth of the deportation operations.
Instead of criminals being deported, as promised by the Republicans, it has been the immigrant workers fueling the Texas economy that are being deported. Texas voters seem to be separating the issue of border security from the issue of immigration policies.
It is this separation of one issue, border security into two issues – border security and immigration policies – that presents the Republicans with a delicate balancing act. The party’s success has depended on maintaining strong support among conservative voters while broadening its appeal to working-class Hispanic communities that often prioritize public safety, economic opportunity, and cultural conservatism. Deportation policies seem to have eroded Hispanic support for Republicans in Texas, forcing the Republicans to fend off Democrat challenges to offices once considered secure.
A Different Republican Coalition
The Republican Senate runoff underscored another significant shift within Texas politics.
Attorney General Ken Paxton’s victory over U.S. Senator John Cornyn represents more than the defeat of a veteran incumbent. It seems to reflect the continued influence of Trump-aligned candidates with the Republican electorate over the party’s conservative grassroots. Polling after the runoff suggests that Republican primary voters saw ideological alignment and confrontation with political opponents as higher priorities than seniority or experience.
That dynamic will likely shape the calculus for the general election.
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Paxton enters November with enthusiastic support from the Republican base but also carries political liabilities that Democrats hope to exploit. His long history of legal controversies and polarizing public profile provide Democrats with opportunities to appeal to moderate suburban voters who have become increasingly influential in fast-growing metropolitan counties.
Democratic nominee James Talarico seems to be framing his campaign around affordability, ethics and education – issues that are designed to attract independents and Republicans dissatisfied with the MAGA-influence over the party, without alienating his Democratic base.
Can Talarico’s strategy overcome Texas’ Republican advantage remains the question Republican strategists are trying to answer before the first November ballot is cast.
Hispanic Voters Could Again Decide the Outcome, This Time Favoring Democrats
Political observers have long-viewed Hispanic voters primarily as Democratics. Recent elections complicated that assumption as Republicans posted historic gains across much of South Texas. That electoral picture seems to be shifting again.
Republicans do not need to win overwhelming majorities among Hispanic voters to remain the dominant party statewide. They simply need to preserve enough of the support they built in recent years while maintaining strong turnout among rural conservatives and suburban Republicans.
Democrats, meanwhile, are pursuing a different strategy. Rather than winning every border county, they are attempting to rebuild margins in Hispanic communities while continuing to perform strongly in urban counties and rapidly growing suburban areas around Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio. Much like what happened in the March primaries.
For El Paso, the Shifting Party Landscape Helps Down Ballot Candidates
Although El Paso remains one of Texas’ most reliably Democratic counties, the city’s voters must measure their votes against sky-high taxation, failing schools, economic uncertainty and immigration.
Border policy is not an abstract issue to El Paso voters. Economic activity, cross-border commerce, family relationships, and daily life remain closely connected to Ciudad Juárez. But immigration enforcement in El Paso hasn’t resulted in headline news like in other communities. While South Texas homebuilders are sounding the alarm on worker shortages, local homebuilders remain silent on the matter.
Rather than producing significant electoral shifts, the larger question for El Paso may be voter participation.
If concerns over failing schools, rising taxes and pressure on pocketbooks at the gasoline stations and grocery stores continue, it could lead to higher voter turnouts in the city. A larger voter turn out in El Paso would not influence “turning Texas blue,” but more voters could lead to further local election upsets like in the primaries where incumbents David Stout and Sergio Coronado were defeated in races they previously securely held.
El Paso’s incumbents, like Texas Republicans, are facing election uncertainty as voters seem intent on making changes by ousting incumbents out of office.
Republicans, meanwhile, are likely to focus less on winning El Paso outright than on limiting Democratic margins while preserving the Republican advances made in other border communities over the past several election cycles.
Greg Abbott’s campaign is active in El Paso, primarily through a voter App they are sharing with El Paso’s slate of candidates on the November ballot. But the sharing of Abbott’s voter App with local Republicans seems to be more about shoring up the local Republican turnout than supporting the local Republican candidates in their races. Texas Republicans don’t seem overly enthusiastic with El Paso Republicans winning their elections.
But if enthusiasm among Democratic voters rises in El Paso, candidates lower on the ballot may benefit from the stronger participation in November, especially in the non-partisan races.
For Texas, the November ballots will show whether the Hispanic voters that shifted toward the Republicans will remain or will they shift back to the Democrats. If Texas Hispanics shift and show up at the ballot boxes in greater numbers, they could help “turn Texas blue.” But that is a big “if,” because historically, Hispanics have been lackluster voters, even in El Paso.