Editor’s note: the websites for the candidates are available at the end of the article.
The final slate of candidates for the city council and mayoral seats has been set. Voters will be voting to fill seven open seats from 32 candidates on November 5. The seven open seats are the mayor and city council district seats 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7. Seats one and five are holding special elections because Brian Kennedy and Isabel Salcido resigned their seats to run for mayor.
The largest number of candidates for an open seat are vying for the mayoral seat. They are Marco Antonio Contreras, Elizabeth Cordova, Cassandra Hernandez, Renard Johnson, Brian Kennedy, Ben Mendoza, Isabel Salcido and Steven Winters. Three of the candidates are city representatives: Cassandra Hernandez, Brian Kennedy and Isabel Salcido. Of the eight candidates only two are likely to make it into the runoff: Brian Kennedy and Renard Johnson.
Although Cassandra Hernandez and Isabel Salcido both have name recognition and are women on a ballot dominated by Kamala Harris, their campaign momentum going into the November election lags Kennedy and Johnson in voter outreach.
The mayoral race will end in a runoff with Johnson and Kennedy the likely candidates facing off.
El Paso News analyzed the ballots cast in municipal elections from 1998 through the January 20, 2024, District 2 runoff between Josh Acevedo and Verónica Carbajal.
According to our analysis, on average, 58,000 voters cast votes for mayor in elections held from May 1, 1999 through May 6, 2017. However, municipal elections were transitioned to the November ballot on November 6, 2018. Voter turnout for the mayor dropped from 53,866 on May 1, 1999 to 32,921 on May 6, 2017 with the lowest turnout of 16,448 on May 9, 2009.
Our analysis also revealed that in the four runoff elections for mayor between 2001 and 2013, voter turnout for the runoff outperformed the number of voters who voted for mayor in the elections leading to the runoff. The anomaly was on June 10, 2017 when fewer voters voted in the runoff.
The first mayoral election held on a November ballot was the November 3, 2020 election where 217,484 voters cast ballots for mayor. In the runoff, 54,290 ballots were cast.
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District 1
In the races to fill the District 1 city council seat there are four candidates. This race, like the mayoral race, will likely result in a runoff. The four candidates are Sam Armijo, Alejandra Chavez, Tom Handy and Monica Reyes. Lorenzo Luna filed his intention to run with his declaration of a treasurer but failed to file his application by the deadline. The runoff will likely be between Chavez and Reyes. Handy may upset one of the leading contenders depending on his ability to raise political funds.
There have been two District 1 races held in November ballots, the November 6, 2018 where 26,535 ballots were cast and the November 8, 2022 where 21,227 ballots were cast. Prior to these two elections, the average voter turn out for District 1 was about 10,000 voters.
District 2
The District 2 seat is the only seat where the next city council representative will be selected on Election Day as there are only two candidates in that race. They are the incumbent, Josh Acevedo and his challenger, Isabel Ceballos. Acevedo is running his second race this year after defeating Verónica Carbajal in the January 20, 2024 runoff election. In his two elections, Acevedo attracted less than 3,000 votes, less than the average 5,000 votes in previous elections.
This election cycle will likely draw around 22,500 ballots, slightly more than the 21,227 ballots cast on November 8, 2022.
District 3
In the District 3 ballot there are five candidates. They are Fabiola Arellano, Kenneth Bell, Deanna Maldonado-Rocha, Jose Rodriguez and Jesse Romero. Like the other races with multiple candidates this seat will likely result in a runoff with Arellano, Bell and Maldonado-Rocha contending for a spot in the runoff. Jose Rodriguez does not seem to have an active voter outreach, suggesting that the realtor may be banking on the name recognition of the former state representative and county attorney with the same name for a bump on Election Day.
Between May 1999 and May 2017, just under 5,000 ballots were cast in each election cycle. In the November 3, 2020 election there ere 24,416 ballots cast. On November 5 there will likely be more than 25,000 ballots cast for the District 5 seat.
District 4
In the District 4 seat there are again four candidates vying for the attention of the District 4 voters. They are Cynthia Boyar Trejo, Dorothy “Sissy” Byrd, Wesley Lawrence and incumbent Joe Molinar. Molinar is facing a strong challenge from all four challengers, with Byrd and Lawrence having political name recognition.
The average voter turnout between May 1999 and May 2017 is around 7,400. In the November 3, 2020 election, 24,416 votes were cast. This election will also likely result in a runoff, but which two candidates will face off remains difficult to predict this far ahead in this race. The incumbent Molinar enjoys the advantage of incumbency, but the challengers can gain an advantage depending on their campaign strategies and access to campaign funds.
District 5
In the District 5 there are five candidates facing off. There were originally six candidates, but Salvador “Sal” Padilla withdrew on September 4. The remaining five candidates are Amanda Cunningham, Tamara Lantigua Davis, Felix Muñoz, Ivan Niño and Sean “Kowalski” Orr.
Niño previously ran for County Tax Assessor-Collector office in the March 3, 2020 Democratic primary and Muñoz ran for the District 5 seat in 2022. This election will likely end in a runoff between Muñoz and Niño as both are known to voters, however anyone could be a spoiler the closer the election gets.
The average voter turnout for the District 5 seat in the prior May elections was around 6,800 votes. In the November 2018 election, 19,243 voters turned out. By 2022, the voter turnout had dropped to 11,063.
However, unlike the other municipal seats, the District 5 office held an election on the November 2, 2004 election where 14,960 voters cast their ballots that year. It is expected that around 22,000 ballots will be cast to fill this seat. There is not enough data to predict who will be in a runoff in this election, but Niño will likely be facing an opponent.
District 7
The District 7 race features a former office holder and a current office holder and two contenders. The District 7 candidates are Fabiola Campos Lopez, Chris Hernandez, Lily Limón and Alan Serna. Limón previously held the seat from 2013 to 2017 and Hernandez was elected to the Ysleta School District board in 2023.
The average voter turnout between 1999 and 2017 has been short of 7,000 votes. In 2020, 23,401 voters cast votes in that election.
The likely scenario for this race is a runoff election between Hernandez and Limón.
Except for District 2, El Paso voters will likely have to go back to the polls to select their next mayor and fill five of the six open city representative seats.
Candidates With Website (these are the candidates we could identify that had websites, click on their name to access their website)
Josh Acevedo
Fabiola Arellano
Kenneth Bell
Dorothy “Sissy” Byrd
Fabiola Campos Lopez
Isabel Ceballos Otten
Alejandra Chavez
Marco Antonio Contreras
Tom Handy
Cassandra Hernandez
Chris Hernandez
Renard Johnson
Brian Kennedy
Wesley Lawrence
Lily Limón
Deanna Maldonado-Rocha
Joe Molinar
Felix Muñoz
Ivan Niño
Monica Reyes
Isabel Salcido
This article was corrected on September 8, 2024 at 13:31 to remove an incorrect number in the mayoral race.