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According to a June 15, 2022, Quinnipiac Poll, El Pasoan Beto O’Rourke has closed the lead on Greg Abbott in the race for the Texas governorship. The poll shows O’Rourke at 43% to Abbott’s 48%. The Quinnipiac poll polled Texas registered voters. According to Quinnipiac, its December 2021 polled showed O’Rourke at 37% to Abbott’s 52%.

Abbott’s support, according to the poll comes from men (59% to 33%) and white voters (63% to 30%). O’Rourke has the support of women (52% to 39%), Black voters (73% to 11%) and Latino voters (50% to 41%). Under favorability traits, Abbot trends higher in honesty by a slight margin and in leadership skills compared to O’Rourke. However, when those polled were asked how they felt about whether the candidate cares about the “average Texans,” O’Rourke outperformed Abbott.

As expected, when voters were asked which candidate would handle the border better, they chose Abbott (53%) over O’Rourke (38%). Abbott outperformed O’Rourke on the issues over the economy, the coronavirus, election laws, abortion and gun policy. The poll shows that Republican voters identified the border as “the most urgent issue,” while the Democrats identified “gun policy” and “abortion” the two important issues for them.

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Quinnipiac polls have been about 82% historically accurate. FiveThirtyEight analyzes opinion polls. It is owned by The Walt Disney Company.

The Texas Tribune suggests that the narrowing gap between Abbott and O’Rourke is the result of the May 24 Uvalde school shooting. The Tribune article points out that border issues remain a Texas voter issue, but that the Uvalde shooting has made gun control an important voting issue in the governor’s race.

However, the Quinnipiac poll suggests that Texas voters believe that Abbott is slightly better in addressing gun policy. Abbott polled 47% to O’Rourke’s 43% on gun policy.

Will the Latino vote in November provide an opportunity for Beto O’Rourke is a discussion point among Democrats leading up to November. However, the poll numbers for O’Rourke suggests that he does not enjoy overwhelming support from Texas Hispanic voters. The question of Latinos supporting Democrats in Texas was disrupted by Republican Mayra Flores who won her seat on Tuesday night.

Flores not only flipped the seat for the Republicans, but she did so as the first Mexican-born candidate elected to Congress. Her election has concerned the Democrats who are rallying next week to address the erosion of Latino support among the Democrats. El Paso congresswoman Veronica Escobar is expected to be at the meeting.

Martín Paredes became a partner of Politico Campaigns, a political campaign management firm, in June 2022. The views and opinion expressed in our publication are those of Paredes and do not necessarily represent the views of the firm or its other partners. El Paso News is funded primarily by Paredes, in part by donations from readers and online advertisement. Politico Campaigns plays no role in our reporting. El Paso News has an open editorial policy encouraging any author to submit any article from any point of view for consideration to be published on El Paso News.

Martin Paredes

Reporting on public corruption, border politics, immigration and public policy in El Paso since 2000.

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