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The final unofficial results are in for yesterday’s primary runoff election. There were no surprises in the outcome with one incumbent losing their seat and another keeping their seat in the two country commissioners races. There were 24,553 votes cast in yesterday’s elections for a voter turnout of 4.93%.

Judy Gutierrez v. David Stout

Several seats were up for grabs in the Democratic primary. In the county commissioner, precinct 2 two race between challenger Judy Gutierrez challenging incumbent David Stout, Stout by 544 votes. (54% to 46%) In the county commissioner, precinct 4 race incumbent Carl L. Robinson lost to challenger Sergio Coronado by 414 votes. (54% to 46%) In the Coronado-Robinson race, 5,362 votes were cast, while in the Gutierrez-Stout race, 6,198 votes were cast.

Sergio Coronado v. Carl Robinson

In the State Board of Education, district 1 race, Melissa N. Ortega outperformed Laura Marquez 54% to 46%. The District Judge, Judicial District 327 race between Chris Daniel Anchondo and Monique Velarde Reyes was close with only 150 separating them. Reyes won the seat with 50.4% of the vote to Anchondo’s 49.6%.

In the rest of the county races two races stood out. In the judge for County Court at Law No. 3 Melissa Baeza beat Monica Lupita Perez 56% to 44%. In the Justice of the Peace, Precinct No. 5 challenger Lucilla “Lucy” Najera beat incumbent John-John Chatman by 693 votes. (62% to 38%)

The Republicans also had primary runoffs. In the county commissioner, precinct 4 race Blanca Trout beat David Adams 56% to 44%. Although Blanca will be challenging Sergio Coronado for the precinct four county commissioner seat in the November elections, historically Republicans do poorly in El Paso. Coronado is expected to prevail in November.

Other notable names in yesterday’s races include former El Pasoan Jay Kleberg losing to Sandragrace Martinez in the Commissioner of the General Land Office 37% to 63%. Kleberg lost to Dee Margo in the 2010 race for the House District 78 seat. In 2010 Kleberg ran as a Republican and last night he ran in the Democratic primary.

Also, last night Sito Negron beat Sean Miller 71% to 30% for the Precinct 36 chair. And Ray Mancera beat Alonzo Rene Mendoza for the Precinct 104 chair.

We have been asked to explain why we call races based on the early voting results. Historically, El Paso early voters tend to mirror election day voters. For example, in the two county commissioners races, Gutierrez versus Stout and in the Coronado versus Robinson, their early voting results predicted the outcomes. Coronado was ahead 53% to Robinson’s 47% in early voting. In the Gutierrez versus Stout race, Stout was ahead 56% to 45%. Because more voters cast votes in early voting than on Election Day, it was impossible for the candidates that were behind to make up the difference. The final results mirrored the early voting results, with Stout and Robinson each losing ground on Election Day but in insufficient votes to make a change.

Readers should note that we called the District Judge, Judicial District 327 too close to call. In early voting Anchondo was ahead b 310 votes. On Election Day, Reyes outperformed Anchondo by 460 votes giving her the win by 150 votes. Reyes was able to mobilize her voters on Election Day.

As reader can observe, our election analysis is based on the historical data.

Martin Paredes

Reporting on public corruption, border politics, immigration and public policy in El Paso since 2000.