The first volley in the war against immigrants by far-right xenophobic activists was Brexit, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union. On June 23, 2016 British voters voted to withdraw from the EU. The margin for the vote was two percent. There is some controversy regarding the misuse of data analytics to get the votes needed for the withdrawal. Soon after Brexit, Donald Trump was elected in the United States under the banner of xenophobia. Again, data analytics have been tied to Trump’s election.
The 2020 U.S. national elections are around the corner. There is some debate on whether Trump will be elected for a second term. There is an obvious division in the country in regard to Trump, immigration, border security and other controversial political topics. The question that remains is who has the upper hand – the Trump supporters or those who oppose him.
For every poll showing Trump being reelected there are other polls showing he loses to the major Democratic contenders.
Like the 2016 elections proved, the polls can be misleading or plain wrong.
But Brexit is a good indicator at what might come.
Britain has been unable to conclude its withdrawal from the EU. Politically the withdrawal has met substantial resistance. The current Prime Minister is Boris Johnson who was one of the most public architects of the Brexit movement. On July 2019, Johnson became the prime minister after Theresa May was ousted after she was unable to conclude the Brexit transition.
Boris Johnson – the public and vocal persona of Brexit – had promised to have the United Kingdom out of the European Union by October 31, 2019 even if it meant an exit without an orderly withdrawal plan in place.
But Brexit seems to be dead now. Johnson is facing unprecedented rebellions within the British political elites including from within his own party membership. Johnson’s attempts to enforce Brexit seems to have floundered, making an October 31 withdrawal unlikely.
Brexit is falling apart.
If Boris Johnson is unable to deliver Brexit, then it bodes bad for the Alt-Right movement supporting the Donald Trump agenda. Like Brexit was the bellwether for the unlikely election of Trump, its failure would also signal Trump’s removal from office in the 2020 elections.