In the April 6, 2010 posting, Friedman argued that a “failed state is one in which the central government has lost control over significant areas of the country and the state is unable to function.” Friedman added, “it seems to us (Stratfor) that the Mexican government has lost control of the northern tier of Mexico to drug-smuggling organizations, which have significantly greater power in that region than government forces”.
Basically, according to Friedman and the other analysts Mexico was on the verge of collapse because criminals were subverting the authority of the government and thus the country was becoming a failed state.
So, let’s follow this logic for a moment, however let us change two important facts in light of a recent event. Instead of Mexico, let’s discuss the United States. Instead of Chapo Guzman, let’s consider Cliven Bundy.
As you all know by now, on April 12, 2014, groups of heavily armed men, some wearing camouflage descended upon Bundy’s ranch in response to a roundup of cattle by the US federal government on public lands. For a few days there were confrontations and standoffs between armed men and US law enforcement. The US federal government retreated and allowed the armed men to occupy and setup checkpoints on public land.
As of May 1, 2014 there are numerous encampments occupied by civilians armed with military-grade weapons. There have been reports of “militia men” setting up checkpoints on the highways in the area and demanding that drivers produce identification and answer questions.
Whether Bundy is correct or not is irrelevant as the fact is that the federal government of the United States has retreated and relinquished authority to armed men that have not been recognized as government authorized security forces.
The news media has recorded the events as an “armed presence in or around community areas including churches, school, and or other community locations.”
Now let us take Friedman’s own words verbatim, however this time let’s substitute Mexico for the United States. His comments would have read, “it seems to us that the United States government has lost control of the west-central tier of the United States to Cliven Bundy, which has significantly greater power in that region than government forces.”
Now I ask you, according to George Friedman’s own argument, is the United States on the verge of becoming a failed state?
I would love nothing better than for George Friedman or anyone who thought Mexico was on the verge of collapse to explain these facts away.
It won’t happen because just as absurd as it was about Mexico it is also as absurd about the United States.