The lack of resources for the schools and the surrounding controversies of school closures and school board actions have their genesis in falling school enrollments which has yet to be explained for context. The focus has been and continues to be falling enrollments without the context of why it is happening. More important is that falling school enrollments is the first sign of a critical economic indicator that has yet to be discussed. It is an existential threat not only to El Paso but for several countries across the globe, including the United States. Taxes are not the problem, as has been suggested, but rather, a symptom.
Bob Moore of El Paso Matters briefly touched on the topic of stagnant population growth in El Paso leaving out the important context around it. Moore explained that El Paso’s population growth is the “slowest growth rate among Texas’ 10 most populous counties.” Moore correctly pointed out that other Texas metropolitan areas had larger population growth. He briefly mentioned “a sharp decline in births” but neglected to provide the context that this issue is not only affecting El Paso, Texas, but the US and countries across the globe as well. Moore also briefly touched on immigration, again without the needed context. Immigration is also making headlines today.
Although Bob Moore suggested that the issue of stagnant population growth started during COVID the fact is that it has been ongoing since 2010. The slowest rate of population growth in the United States since the Great Depression of the 1930s happened between 2010 and 2020. The primary cause is a falling birth rate – basically people are having less children.
Falling birth rates may seem easily fixable and some may even argue it is helpful for addressing other problems like climate issues or the taxes needed to address “urban sprawl,” but the fact remains that declining birth rates are an economic threat to the communities where it is happening.
The Economist explained in 2024 that “America is uniquely ill-suited to handle a falling population”. (paywall) As a community’s population declines, businesses close for lack of customers, unemployment rises and the local schools are forced to cut costs by eliminating sports and other activities because less students reduces federal and state funding for them, according to The Economist. Exactly what El Paso is experiencing today.
The Economist added that the loss of economic activity leads to blight and the resulting drop in real estate values leads to the “death spiral” of a dying community. The article goes on to explain that the loss of school funding and the dwindling population increases the burden to the remaining taxpayers who are forced to fund pensions that fewer workers are paying into, forcing property owners to pay more taxes to support a community’s infrastructure as fewer homeowners help with funding local needs.
Organic population decline is a crisis not only faced by El Paso, the State of Texas, or even the United States, it is also a worldwide problem.
According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a University of Washington research organization, “by 2050, over three-quarters (155 of 204) of countries will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain population size over time.” The research adds that by 2100, “97% of countries,” or 198 of 204 will not be able to keep their population sustainable. Over the last three years, even China is experiencing a population decline.
Population declines challenge the economy because there are fewer workers to support the people who are getting older and dropping out of the workforce. Environmentalists have long advocated that controlling population growth would benefit nature. But evidence suggests that the opposite is true. The largest impact on the environment is energy consumption. Energy consumption by an individual “increases among the elderly after age 70.” The study also found that energy consumption slows down for people under 30 years of age and for those 55 to 64 years old. In essence, as people exit the work force, instead of reducing their consumption of energy, they increase it leading to more stress on the environment.
Coupled with less workers and the higher costs on both the environment and the community’s economy, a dwindling population is a threat to communities like El Paso. To understand this, it is useful to look at the presence of children in counties like El Paso as that is where the context of school closures, rising taxes and economic threats begins.
The Presence of Children Per County
According to the latest United Nations population estimates, the Central African Republic has the highest population ratio of children to adults at almost 50%. Of the 196 countries listed by the UN, Hong Kong is at the bottom of the list with a population ratio of 10.7% of children to adults. Canada ranks at 163 with a ratio of 15.3%, while the US ranks at 140th place with a ratio of 17.59%, according to UN data through 2023. México is ranked at 97 with a ratio of 24.92%.
In the US, the worst decline in population growth is in rural America which declined for the first time between 2010 and 2019. Deaths are exceeding births in the rural areas of the country.
The next population census in the US is not planned until 2030. A census test is planned for next year testing the system for 2030. It may provide extremely limited data on population growth. The last census was in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic forced the US Census Bureau to adjust the census leading to errors in the population data being used today.
The Census Bureau issued a report [1] last year acknowledging that the pandemic led to college students that were likely not counted or may have been overcounted as well as missing counts because of shifting home populations due to the crisis. Also errors were introduced by vacancies in homes at the time of the counts because families had relocated for various reasons. Moreover, the Census found that safety concerns “likely increased” the reluctance of people unwilling to participate. Likewise, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) reported that the “COVID-19 pandemic and other long-standing challenges potentially affected the accuracy of the 2020 Census counts.” It also found that “Black or African American and Hispanic persons, young children, and renters were undercounted, while non-Hispanic White persons, adults over 50, and homeowners were overcounted.” In essence, White people were overcounted while people of color were undercounted.
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These results not only tie directly to population count errors but to issues like immigration and election results leading the news headlines today.
Earlier this year, Axios looked at the “fastest growing (and shrinking) U.S. counties” between 2014 and 2023. What Axios reported seems to contradict Bob Moore’s analysis of Census estimates that are at best based on incomplete data sets or at worse erroneous calculations.
According to Axios, El Paso’s population was neutral, slightly increasing from 837 thousand in 2014 to 866 thousand in 2023. The Axios report seems to support Moore’s contention that El Paso’s population lags the other large Texas metropolitan areas.
What can be observed from the Axios map is the important data set that shows that many of Texas’ “rural counties are shrinking.” Hudspeth county, to the east of El Paso, experienced a significant population drop as other rural counties in Texas. As Axios points out, the fastest-growing areas are also among the most vulnerable to climate change.”
More important is that changes in population not only affect the climate, but the economy as well. Significantly is that changes in America’s population were significantly increased by immigrants, and not by births. International migration led to a net increase of America’s population from 1.7 million in 2022 to 2.3 million in 2023. These two data points – population growth and immigration – will affect Texas politically and economically in the coming years.
Existential Economic And Political Threats For Texas
Looking at the map, it can be observed that if population trends continue, Texas, although experiencing rapid growth in the larger metropolitan areas, may see the political ramifications of rural population declines in the 2026 and 2028 elections.
As the GAO acknowledged, the latest census data likely undercounted people of color and overcounted White people. The number of rural counties whose populations are dwindling in Texas suggests that, politically, the makeup of Texas will change as early as the next elections.
Rural voters are crucial to the Republican Party. Republicans secured 63% of the rural voter leading them to victory in the last election. As explained by Colby College professors, Nicholas Jacobs and Daniel Shea, the rise of the rural voter began in the 1980s. But their political influence declines as America’s population continues to shift towards the cities leaving rural America with less voters that are crucial to the Republicans.
Going back to the Axios map, Texas’ rapid population growth is at the cost of the rural voters. Comparing that to Florida, where the Republicans also dominate national elections, it can be observed that Florida’s rural population remains neutral, while the Texas rural population declines. Less rural voters suggests that the Texas Republicans are losing a significant portion of their base.
This is before factoring in the issue of immigration.
The Long-Term Impacts Of Mass Deportations
It doesn’t matter where one stands on the issue of the Trump Administration’s immigration deportation programs because the American people are divided over the issue. Notwithstanding the protests happening around the country, a recent poll by CBS found that Americans tend to support Trump’s deportation efforts based on what they perceive is happening. The June 4th through the 6th poll found that 54% of those polled approve of Trump’s deportation efforts. Those numbers change once the respondents are asked whether Trump is prioritizing “dangerous criminals” or whether due process if being allowed. America’s polarized politics is what leads the debate on the immigration issue.
However, the experience of the mass deportations of immigrants from America in the past demonstrate that the long-term effects of deporting immigrants from the country causes economic problems for the country. Even Trump has been forced to acknowledge this this week as will be discussed below. “Operation Wetback” in the 1950’s used the military to forcefully remove migrants from the country. Trump’s current mass deportations is the fourth iteration of U.S. presidents removing migrants from the country. The first was the so-called “Mexican Repatriation” from 1929 to 1937 that led to the removal of somewhere between 400,000 to 2 million Mexicans from the country. The exact number is not known because accurate records are not available and the expulsions included even US citizens wrongly deported. Republican Herbert Hoover was president from 1929 to 1933. Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt continued the mass deportation efforts until he was forced to negotiate with the Mexican government to allow Mexican workers to fill the jobs left vacant by World War II. Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower led the second mass deportations with Operation Wetback. And between 2008 and 2015, more than 400,000 undocumented immigrants were deported under “Secure Communities.” It was Democrat Barack Obama who led that effort, the third in American mass deportations.
It is important to note that the Great Depression started the first mass deportations and both political parties supported the efforts due to economic problems.
The results of the three mass deportation efforts led to labor shortages and reduced wages and job opportunities for American-born workers. Poignantly, the US government had to implement the “Bracero Program” – a guest-worker program – to offset the economic shortfalls because the American labor force had moved towards a dependence on Mexican workers over decades. This remains true today.
American job losses was the result from the mass deportations led by Democrats Lyndon B. Johnson, John F. Kennedy, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Republican Calvin Coolidge. Even Barack Obama’s deportation efforts led to an estimated 44,000 American-born workers losing their jobs. The previous mass deportations had “generated no new jobs or earnings, but also did not harm American workers’ earnings.” Worse for the American economy, the nonpartisan American Immigration Council suggests that the current mass deportation efforts may “cost nearly $1 trillion over a decade,” while the US government loses “tens of billions annually in tax revenues” from those it deports leading to a 6.8% decline in America’s GDP. A 2024 paper [2] by the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire supports these findings.
In addition to the shift towards the dependence on a Mexican labor force, the deportations increased labor mechanization among several economic sectors. Today, the same mechanization of labor can be seen in the rising use of artificial intelligence (AI) and self-checkout lanes in supermarkets, as well as automated manufacturing and self-service services, which reduce the need for low-wage earners.
In every case, including the current 4th iteration of mass deportations is the disruption caused in many communities across the country among the populations and the economy. Even Donald Trump has been forced to acknowledge this reality.
In a social media post on his platform on June 12, Trump wrote that his “aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers from them.”
Trump’s post signals that the promised changes to his immigration policies acknowledges that the American economy is damaged when undocumented immigrants are removed from the country. That the farmers and owners of hotels are the industries that Trump mentions in his post is significant because undocumented migrant workers are concentrated in the agriculture (farms-13%), leisure (hotels-8%) and service (restaurants-7%) industries in addition to construction. Almost half (47%) of the undocumented immigrants reside in California and Texas, according to data from 2022 from the American Immigration Council.
The most important takeaway from the historical mass deportations is that all of them had the consequence of failing to address the shortage of labor, which is now exacerbated by Americans choosing not to have children.
People Having Less Children
“Late marriages leads to birth rate decline, and to race suicide” declared Edward A. Ross in 1935. It was Ross’ “race suicide” that helped to start the eugenics theory that the White race was threatened by people of color. This drives much of the anti-immigration narratives across the country today. Although “race suicide” is driven by various factors besides late marriages, it started the trend of families having less children. Ross argued that “the average couple must have three to four children” to sustain a race.
Driving the dwindling population dynamic is that people are simply having less children.
According to Pew Research, “57% of adults under 50” have no interest in having children. The US fertility rate in 2023 was at its historically lowest point, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Choosing not to have children is now common in America. Pope Francis labeled not wanting children “a form of selfishness.” Economists have also been worried about declining birthrates since 2021. (paywall) As populations age out of the workforce, their younger replacements are not enough to replace them. Immigrants have traditionally filled the void as demonstrated by the cycle of welcoming immigrants to fill jobs – documented and undocumented – and then promptly expelling from the country only to start the cycle again. Each time the result is economic downturns for the native population while the declining birthrate continues.
Although industrialization and AI may offer temporary relief, the result, which drives much of the immigration rhetoric, remains – a stagnant economy.
According to a September 2024 report by the American Immigration Council, almost 30% of El Paso’s work force are immigrants. As expected most (91%) are from México. But as the El Paso population grew at a slight rate of 1.5% between 2014 and 2019, the immigrant population in El Paso declined by about 6%.
In 2019, El Paso’s migrant population held “considerable economic power” by contributing around $8.6 billion towards El Paso’s GDP. After paying $591.8 million in federal taxes and another $440.7 million in state and local taxes, El Paso’s migrant population had around $38 billion left in spending power, or almost 30% of the spending power of the city.
El Paso’s migrant population represents 27% of the workforce. They can be found in agriculture (48%) and in construction (45%). More important for El Paso is that its migrant population is 31% of those working in the STEM economy. An important metric for El Paso is that 44% of El Paso businesses are owned by migrants.
In 2023, according to Census data, California had the highest migrant population at 27.3%. Texas ranked 7th with 18% of its population made up of immigrants. El Paso’s migrant population (23.5%) ranks the city in 4th place after McAllen (26.2%), Laredo (25.1%) and Houston (23.6%).
The push to deport as many immigrants is unlikely to change much in the coming months, but the result will mirror the previous mass deportations – an economy damaged by fewer workers working. For El Paso, the result is also a worse economy but not because El Pasoans don’t have enough babies, which is a problem, but rather because the economy isn’t diversified enough to weather Trump’s mass deportations and the larger problems of declining birthrates across the globe.
For El Paso, its declining immigrant population is an addition to long-term economic problem.
El Paso’s economy significantly depends on government jobs and the taxes supporting increasing public works that an aging population is ill suited to support. Unlike other large metropolitan Texas communities, El Paso does not offer quality-of-life like Dallas, for example, offers that drive rural populations there. In many ways El Paso is a rural community whose population remains stagnant but with the same economic deficiencies it has had for decades.
Less children and less immigrants is the existential threat to America’s economy in the coming decades. As The Economist explained, America simply cannot both have less children and deport immigrants en masse while hoping to remain economically strong.
Sources:
- 2020 Census Topic Report: Potential Quality Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic, United States Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce, April 4, 2024.
- Robert Lynch and Michael Ettlinger, “The Economic Impact on Citizens and Authorized Immigrants of Mass Deportations,” University of New Hampshire, Carsey School of Public Policy,” August 29, 2024.
Good report, Martin. You cite 54% favoring Trump’s policy that seems about right to me and reflects the lack of national consensus on about everything today. I question your population gain/loss stats in that I understand that certain blue states are experiencing population loss, namely California, NY, PA, NJ and IL. These are the bedrock states for Democrats and population losses will be felt in the House come the next census. Coincidently, these are the states absorbing the Biden influx of migrants due to his open border policy. I can’t help but wonder if open border was a ploy to backfill the population declines in these states, offsetting potential loss of seats in Congress. Your thoughts?
Hello Jerry, thank you for your comments. Looking at Axio’s map, it seems to me that the population shifts are largely neutral in the so-called “blue states,” assuming the Axio’s data is correct. Texas seems to have the largest population decline in the rural areas where the GOP largely depends on their votes. It would be interesting to analyze population shifts county by county against the voter turnout in the last election to get granular data. It would be cumbersome and I am assuming some political consultants are already doing so. I disagree on the belief that immigrants were used to fill population declines. El Paso is the perfect example in that it is a transit point but not a landing for most immigrants. Immigrants largely settle where there are jobs. For most it is agriculture and hospitality/service and it helps that communities where they go to already have cultures established for the newly arrived immigrants, i.e. people from their countries or close ones. Most agriculture is rural. As can be observed by the administration’s reversal on the targeting of farms today, it is the core GOP voter that depends on the irregular workforce. The larger issue about the immigration reversal underlines my article’s argument that America is dependent on the immigrant workforce. It has been since World War II and even more so today.
Given the utter chaos of the administrations’ current immigration roundups and the concomitant lack of transparency and due process, future attempts to gather proper census data will be severely challenged. ‘Trust me, I’m from the government’ will not instill a willingness to cooperate in any census count – damage control must begin today.
As accurate Census Data becomes less available, will we turn to social media aggregators and AI to come up with the data necessary to run our lives? George Orwell would have a field day with that concept.
“Less rural voters suggests that the Texas Republicans are losing a significant portion of their base.” Republicans will hold on to power by gerrymandering that is even more egregious than it currently is.