The November 5 election gets underway on Monday. El Paso voters are allowed to cast their ballot in any of the early voting locations. For early voting locations, visit the County’s website here. Although this is a presidential election, El Paso voters are expected to overwhelmingly cast votes for the Democratic Party candidates making the municipal elections the marquee election in El Paso.
At the national level, the contest between Kamala Harris (D) and Donald Trump (R) is the most watched race. Early voting has already begun in Georgia and North Carolina, two swing states for the electoral votes needed to win the presidential election. Polling suggests that Harris enjoys a slight advantage over Trump going into Election Day. But the margin is too small leaving open the question of how voters will be casting ballots in the contest between Harris and Trump.
In Texas, in addition to the abortion question, the Democrats are hoping to unseat Ted Cruz to help secure control of the Senate. The Democrats are banking on Colin Allred defeating Cruz. However, Cruz enjoys significant name recognition going into election night. Cruz is not taking any chances and has deployed a small team in El Paso to help bolster his ballot count even though he is not expected to attract many votes in El Paso.
Countywide there are two races that merit a mention. Likely the only Republican on the ballot with the opportunity to attract enough votes to win is incumbent Bill Hicks running to keep his District Attorney seat after being appointed by Greg Abbott in 2022 to replace Yvonne Rosales who resigned her seat. Hicks is being challenged by Democrat James Montoya.
Although Democrats tend to prevail in El Paso, in the case of Hicks, Montoya may have a difficult time overcoming Hicks by the time the last ballot is counted. The other countywide race is for sheriff between Republican Minerva Torres Shelton and Democrat Oscar Ugarte. Ugarte seems to have the inside tract in this contest.
It is, however, the City of El Paso elections that will be making the headlines on Election Day.
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The Municipal Elections
The mayor and the six city council seats is where much of the electoral anticipation is in El Paso. It is during the Early Voting period where many of the contests are settled. The Early Voting results, that are scheduled to be released on November 5 at around 7:00pm will likely show those who will face off in a runoff election.
Except for the District 2 seat between incumbent Josh Acevedo and challenger Isabel Ceballos Otten, the other city council races, including the mayoral race will likely result in runoff elections. With only two candidates for the District 2 seat, Acevedo or Ceballos will be the next city representative for that district.
Mayor: Renard Johnson Versus Brian Kennedy
There are eight candidates running for mayor, including three sitting city representatives: Cassandra Hernandez, Brian Kennedy and Isabel Salcido. Although there is a suggestion that Hernandez and Salcido may get a women’s push at the ballot because of Kamala Harris, this is unlikely to be sufficient for get either into a runoff.
Although there remain persistent indicators that the Renard Johnson Campaign has made little inroads against Kennedy, the likely scenario remains that Johnson and Kennedy will faceoff in a runoff election.
District 1: Ale Chávez versus Monica Reyes
For the District 1 seat, the likely scenario is a runoff election between Ale Chávez and Monica Reyes. Chávez has outspent Reyes by over $40,000 suggesting that Chávez is hoping to outspend Reyes for votes and avoid a runoff. This is unlikely because of the number of candidates in that contest. Chávez has outspent all the other city council candidates by a significant amount.
Tom Handy’s election results will be a good barometer of whether a grassroots candidacy focused on block walking and social media is a viable option for future candidates in El Paso.
District 3: Kenneth Bell versus Deanna Maldonado-Rocha
In the District 3 contest, the two likely candidates to faceoff in a runoff election will be Kenneth Bell and Deanna Maldonado-Rocha.
District 4: Sissy Byrd, Wesley Lawrence and Joe Molinar
For the District 4 seat, early indications are that there are three candidates vying for the two-runoff spots. They are Sissy Byrd, the incumbent Joe Molinar and Wesley Lawrence.
District 5: Felix Muñoz and Ivan Niño
For the District 5 city council seat, it appears that Felix Muñoz and Ivan Niño will be going into a runoff election.
Closing out our city council races is the race for the District 7 city council seat.
District 7: Chris Hernandez and Lily Limón
In the District 7 race, the two contenders likely to faceoff in a runoff election are Chris Hernandez and Lily Limón. Limón has spent around $26,000 in her campaign, second only to Chávez in the District 1 race.
Our Early Voting Tool
Our early voting tool will go live on Tuesday. With the tool you can quickly lookup who has voted during the early voting period, including whether they mailed in a ballot or voted at a polling station. Each day, we will be updating the data set to show the latest list of voters who have voted.
Early voting runs through Friday, November 1. Election Day is November 5.