El Paso News spent the weekend speaking to several El Paso political consultants and political observers about the upcoming mayoral election now that Brian Kennedy is officially in the running. The one thing everyone agreed on was that no one was surprised that Kennedy was running. All but one of the individuals that El Paso News spoke to agreed that Kennedy was the one to beat.
To allow the individuals we spoke to, to openly talk about their views of the election, we agreed not to name them publicly.
The Likely Results
The obvious question everyone wanted to discuss was what will be the likely outcome for the mayoral election on November 5.
Political consultant and YISD School Board Trustee, Chris Hernandez wrote in his recent editorial that Cassandra Hernandez and Brian Kennedy will likely faceoff in a runoff election after the final vote is counted on November 5. Chris Hernandez based his commentary on a lack of name recognition that Johnson has with the voters.
Individuals we spoke to told us that Chris Hernandez is wrong about Cassandra Hernandez making it into a runoff. According to one individual, Cassandra Hernandez cannot overcome the “stigma” of the gasoline controversy. Cassandra Hernandez was issued a Letter of Reprimand by the El Paso Ethics Commission in July 2023. That reprimand is something voters are looking closely at, everyone we spoke to agreed. “It is a hard thing to overcome,” another person told us. Another individual we spoke to said that Cassandra Hernandez “is only one mailer away from being out of the race.” The individual was talking about a mailer detailing the misuse of city-paid gasoline sent to targeted voters. “Voters cannot forgive the abuse of taxpayer dollars,” the individual concluded, especially if they are “reminded in a mailer.”
One individual we asked says that the Renard Johnson campaign is doing a “good job” running the campaign. However, several others have said that Johnson’s campaign is having difficulties trending with the voters. His campaign started early but they have nothing to show for it several people told us. I have not seen anything “substantive” from the Johnson Campaign reach voters, one individual told us, adding that “glossies” do not win the El Paso voters.
However, everyone we spoke to disagreed with Chris Hernandez’ assessment of Cassandra Hernandez making the runoff and instead they agreed that the likely scenario is a runoff election between Renard Johnson and Brian Kennedy.
That is if no one else announces.
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The Pickett Factor
One individual we spoke to said that although Kennedy is the frontrunner, what would change the dynamics of the mayoral election would be if Joe Pickett were to enter the race. Pickett has been rumored to be considering running for mayor for months now. On June 6, Pickett told us that he would “will decide middle of next month” on whether he will run. Next month would have been this month.
With over $250,000 in campaign funds available to him, Pickett has the name recognition and the funds to run a credible race, according to some of the individuals we spoke to.
In a text message yesterday afternoon, Pickett told us he will decide “soon,” no later than the “first week of August,” one month later than what he told us back in June.
No one we spoke to suggested that there are other viable candidates waiting to announce, leaving the upcoming mayoral race between Cassandra Hernandez, Renard Johnson and Brian Kennedy, unless Pickett were to jump into the race.
One individual opined that if Pickett were to run, his entrance into the race will make it more difficult for the Hernandez and Johnson campaigns to reach voters. They suggested Pickett would only weaken Kennedy’s opponents in the race for the mayor’s seat.
Although there are five candidates who have announced they are running for mayor, everyone agreed that only three have a chance to make the runoff – Hernandez, Johnson and Kennedy. Should Joe Pickett decide to run, he will be the top contender with Kennedy, almost everyone agreed.
Although several candidates have already announced, officially the filing date does not open until Saturday and closes on August 19. Except for Pickett no other viable candidates for mayor are expected to join the crowded field.
However, some of those we spoke to told us that they see no chance that Pickett runs for mayor.
Veronica Escobar And Renard Johnson
One thing that kept coming up during our conversations was congresswoman Veronica Escobar. Some of those we spoke to suggested that congresswoman Veronica Escobar is supporting Renard Johnson. However, no one we spoke to could point us to any statements made by Escobar in support of Johnson. El Paso blogger Max Grossman posted on his El Paso Taxpayer Revolt blog a screenshot of Lauren Zimmerman as the campaign manager for the Johnson Campaign.
According to her LinkedIn profile, Zimmerman was the campaign manager for Escobar’s congressional campaign before joining the Johnson campaign. Grossman has endorsed the Kennedy campaign.
Johnson’s campaign website page listing endorsements does not list Veronica Escobar as having endorsed him.
The “Old White Guy” Narrative
One of the issues some of those that we spoke to are bothered by is the “old white guy” narrative that has been circulating on social media. One person said, aren’t they aware that one of the top contenders, “Renard Johnson is Black?” Those that discussed the race issue with us generally agreed that race isn’t an issue in an El Paso mayoral race pointing out that Johnson is Black, and that the “old white guy” narrative does not apply to Oscar Leeser because he was born in Chihuahua.
The “old white guy” narrative is being driven by political malcontents looking “to be politically relevant,” one individual told us. The distasteful narrative is just a distraction by a few agreed those that discussed it with us.
Fluff Piece On The El Paso Times
One individual we spoke to took umbrage with the El Paso Times coverage of Brian Kennedy’s announcement on Friday, calling it a “fluff” piece. The individual told us that the article by Adam Powell was “nothing more than a press release” for Kennedy. When a journalist “uses words like big player in politics” to identify Kennedy “it smacks of political favoritism,” they told us.
It was clear to us that the individual was upset with the coverage by the El Paso Times complaining about phrases like “well-financed Renard Johnson,” or “well-known city Rep. Cassandra Hernandez.” They went on with the characterization of the El Paso Times article by pointed out other phrases that bothered them, like “he has a war chest,” and a “Democratic juggernaut in his campaign treasurer.” They added, “come on, what kind of reporting is that!” “It reads like an endorsement” and not the news it supposedly is, they told us. They concluded that it read like a “press release” for the Kennedy Campaign.
The person was clearly upset about the coverage by the El Paso Times. We asked if they were affiliated to any campaign. They sidestepped our question and instead said that the El Paso Times “should be ashamed” of their reporting.
The Erroneous Special Election Narrative
One of the things that surprised some of those that we spoke to is the erroneous belief that Brian Kennedy’s announcement would cost the taxpayers money because of the need for a special election to fill his seat. As one individual told us, by “waiting 120 days,” Kennedy did not trigger an additional cost to the taxpayers because the election to fill the seat he is vacating can be held during the November 5 election.
It “doesn’t help that news outlets like El Paso Matters lead with headlines designed to make Kennedy” look “bad” to the electorate. The individual was referring to the headline in Matter’s article about Kennedy that read, in part, “triggers complicated ‘resign to run’ provision.” “There is nothing complicated” about the rule, noting that it is clear that there is no additional cost to the taxpayers since Kennedy waited to announce so that the election to fill his seat can be held during an already scheduled election, we were told.
“We already know who El Paso Matters supports,” the individual ruefully told us, suggesting that the online publication will support the Renard Johnson Campaign.
If Facebook Were An Indicator
If Facebook were an indicator of the upcoming election results, the Renard Johnson Campaign is in serious trouble based on the number of followers. As of yesterday, Cassandra Hernandez had 766 followers on her Facebook page. Renard Johnson, on the other hand, has only 130 likes and 246 followers for a total of 376 Facebook users engaged with his Facebook profile. Brian Kennedy’s personal Facebook profile has 804 friends. It does not appear that Kennedy has configured a campaign Facebook page.
El Paso’s electorate is unique in that many El Paso voters are reachable by candidates through Facebook. Local campaigns have spent campaign funds on Facebook advertising because the voters are accessible there.
Although Facebook cannot be used to predict the outcome of the election the low engagement of Facebook users by the Hernandez and Johnson campaigns suggests low voter engagement by both campaigns. As one of the individuals we spoke to told us, “I’m surprised that Renard has only 130 likes” on his campaign Facebook page. “With the money the campaign is spending on voter outreach I expected much more than that.” They asked rhetorically, “where is his [Renard Johnson] money going to?”
One person we spoke to said that it “will be interesting to see” how many likes Brian Kennedy’s Facebook page generates in a month.
Election Day is November 5. Stay with El Paso News for the latest election news as the campaign get underway.