Jorge Trujillo, a retired packing factory salesperson told the Texas Tribune last month that El Pasoans “have given up on politics.” His wife added that El Paso voters “simply don’t care anymore.” Both were referring to the low voter turnout in the last election. El Paso, with an Hispanic majority is “a low voter-turnout county in a low voter-turnout state.”
El Paso’s voters are “among the lowest” in Texas. Among the reasons the Texas Tribune received about El Paso voters’ apathy includes “dissatisfaction with the two leading” presidential candidates, Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
The Texas Tribune found that one of the reasons that young El Pasoans don’t vote is because young voters don’t “know where to turn to for basic information” of issues like inflation or immigration. Twenty-year-old UTEP student Anthony Willis told the Tribune that he understands that “inflation is crazy right now” but he doesn’t know “much about inflation.” Willis added that “immigration, I hear about it, but I don’t really know how it affects” him.
Pauleth Talamantes who was born in El Paso but lives in Cd. Juárez told the Texas Tribune that “part of the reason she’s not following politics is because she’s not interested in either” Biden or Trump. The Texas Tribune also found that some El Paso voters, like Calvin Zeilsdorf, are casting protest votes by voting for local candidates and skipping state and federal races. Zeilsdorf told the news publication that he intends to do the same in November, adding that although he voted for Biden, he “does not plan to vote for him again because he’s frustrated with Biden’s lack of action in the Israel-Gaza conflict.” Zeilsdorf wants Biden to pressure Israel “to stop attacks on Palestinians.”
Corpus Christi resident, Omar Jasso, moved recently to El Paso to canvass for Selina Saenz, a judgeship candidate in the last election. Jasso told the Texas Tribune that young voters are not voting because there’s “a lack of excitement for Biden.”
El Paso’s Hispanics, which are the majority in the city, are a macrocosm to the upcoming presidential elections in November. Although Biden will most likely win the El Paso ballots, it is what El Paso’s young voters and Hispanics say about the elections that suggests trouble for Joe Biden in November.
El Paso News looked at the party politics across the nation, voter turn and the electoral votes and compared them to El Paso’s voter. Because El Paso is largely a Democratic Party city it was first important to understand what this means nationally. Although El Paso will not have an impact on the presidential elections as the Texas Republicans will likely outperform the Democrats in the state, knowing where the Democratic Party strongholds are important to understand.
Dear reader, I hope you appreciate this article. Before reading more, I ask that you consider my work and make a small donation to help keep this publication open for everyone. El Paso lacks news diversity. I offer 20+ years of historical knowledge about El Paso’s politics and public policy. Media diversity matters. Make a small donation today to help keep my work going for another 20+ years. Thank you.
The Party Leanings Of 100-Largest Cities
According to Ballotpedia, a non-profit and non-partisan political encyclopedia that tracks federal, state and local elections, as of this month, 63 of the largest 100 cities in the country are led by Democrat-leaning mayors. Some municipalities, like El Paso, hold non-partisan elections.
A review of Oscar Leeser’s voting history shows that he has voted in the Democratic primaries in all the primaries since 2004 except for the March 2, 2010 primary where he cast a Republican ballot. Because of his voting record, Leeser should be considered a Democrat.
The 25 Republican-led cities, according to Ballotpedia, are Dallas (TX), Fort Worth (TX), Oklahoma City (OK), Fresno (CA), Mesa (AZ), Omaha (NE), Virginia Beach (VA), Miami (FL), Tulsa (OK), Bakersfield (CA), Aurora (CO), Lexington (VA), Stockton (CA), Henderson (NV), Anchorage (AK), Plano (TX), Chula Vista (CA), Gilbert (AZ), Lubbock (TX), Irving (TX), Chesapeake (VA), Glendale (AZ), Garland (TX), Santa Clarita (CA) and Hialeah (FL).
Although the largest cities in the nation are Democrat, four if you include Houston, the candidate that wins the presidential race will be elected via the electoral votes.
Noting which municipalities the Republicans are strong in allows us to gauge whether urban voters can overcome the rural voter. Donald Trump won the rural vote in both 2016 and 2020. Since the 1980’s rural voters have voted in bloc, making them the most important voters to the Republicans, more so than the “Black voters or young voters” the Democrats are pinning their hopes on for the November elections.
The Tribune article suggests that both of El Paso’s Hispanic voters and young voters alike will likely not materialize in sufficient numbers with young voters skipping casting ballots again. To better understand if the El Paso voter experience translates nationally we then next looked at the party affiliation of the country’s electorate.
Party Affiliation Of Registered Voters
Only 29 states allow voters to indicate their party preference when registering to vote. Party affiliation in Texas is determined by the ballot cast by a voter in the last primary. The Texas voter’s party preference can change from primary to primary.
Of the 29 states that allow voters to indicate their party preference, 12 states have Republicans as the majority of their registered voters, according to Ballotpedia. These are Arizona (35.07%), Florida (38.51%), Idaho (58.13%), Iowa (40.05%), Kansas (44.45%), Kentucky, (46.16%), Nebraska (49.05%), Oklahoma (51.74%), South Dekota (50.27%), Utah (52.55%), West Virginia (40.03%), and Wyoming (81.55%).
Because the presidential election will come down to the electoral voters we then looked at voting histories of the states’ electorate to understand the electoral votes in November.
The Electoral Votes
Presidents in America are elected via the Electoral Votes and not by direct votes. A presidential candidate needs 270 electoral votes to be elected. Voting histories shows that the Democrats can count of about 151 (56%) of the 270 electoral votes needed. The Republicans can count on about 93 (34%) electoral votes. However, things change when Texas is added to the mix.
| Presumed Democratic Party Electoral Votes | Presumed Republican Party Electoral Votes |
| California 54 | Idaho 4 |
| Nevada 6 | Wyoming 3 |
| New Mexico 5 | South Dakota 3 |
| Louisiana 8 | Nebraska 5 |
| Maryland 10 | Iowa 6 |
| Delaware 3 | Kansas 6 |
| New Jersey 14 | Oklahoma 7 |
| Pennsylvania 19 | Arizona 11 |
| New York 28 | Utah 6 |
| Maine 4 | Kentucky 8 |
| West Virginia 4 | |
| Florida 30 | |
| Total: 151 | Total: 93 |
Although Texas party affiliation is not listed in voter registrations, the last time Texas voters voted for a Democrat was in 1976 when Texan voters voted for Jimmy Carter. Because Texas voters have voted for the Republican candidate in the last 11 presidential elections in a row, it is likely that Texas’ 40 electoral votes will go to Donald J. Trump in November giving the Republicans 133 (49%) electoral votes.
Understanding the rural versus urban voter dynamic and the mix of likely electoral votes we must now look if ethnicity can play a part in November.
Asian, Black And Hispanic Voters
Since 1996, the percentage of white voters has been steadily dropping. Prior to 1996, white voters accounted for almost 89% of America’s voting population. In 2012, Black voters accounted for 13% of the voting population and Hispanics accounted for 10%. Asian voters in 2012 were 3% of the voters.
More than 34.4 million Black voters are projected to be eligible to vote in November. Georgia, with 16 electoral votes, is being closely watched as a swing state in November. “Black Americans account for a third of eligible voters” in Georgia.
In 2020, according to Pew Research, “92% of single-race Black, non-Hispanic voters” voted for Joe Biden.
Black voters have been one of the Democrats’ most reliable voters. However, Black voter turnout at the polls is on a decline. Although some recent polls show that Trump has attracted up to 26% of the vote, pollsters say that Trump likely enjoys between 11% to 13% of the Black vote in November.
The poll numbers and the decline of support for Biden by Black voters has led Biden’s supporters to agree “that they have work to do to boost Biden’s standing among Black voters.” Nonetheless, fewer Black voters are turning out to the polls in recent elections.
A recent Gallup poll shows that support for the Democrats among Black and Hispanic voters “are at new lows.” The Democrats have also lost ground among the young voters. The poll results for young and Hispanic voters mirrors El Paso’s experience.
Are lower voter participation among minorities an issues of apathy or did the 2020 pandemic have a part in voter participation across the nation?
The Covid 19 Effect
A 2023 Election Law Journal article (see note 1 below) found that exposure to COVID “substantially influenced voter turnout” and how voters cast ballots in the 2020 U.S. elections. The study found that compared to 2018, Democrat voters gravitated towards vote by mail instead of in-person voting at the polls. However, the report suggests that “a new partisan voting gap that is especially prominent among heavy news consumers” emerged because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Because states regulate elections, party affiliation governs voting policies in each state, with Republicans favoring in-person voting and Democrats supporting options other than in-person ballots. In the 2020 elections, nearly 43% of the ballots cast across the nation were cast through mail-in ballots. Expanding our analysis further we find that El Paso and Texas voters do not mirror their national counterparts on when they cast their ballots – during the early voting period or on Election Day.
As can be observed, national voters prefer casting ballots on Election Day rather than during the early voting period. El Paso and Texas voters, on the other hand, prefer to vote during the early voting period than on Election Day. Texas and El Paso voters generally mirror their type of ballot preference.
Nationally, on average since 2000, voters who voted on Election Day previously steadily declined each presidential election cycle. Also, since 2000, mail-in ballots have increased and outperformed early voters.
The report found that minority voter participation declined because of Covid-19. The report does not address whether rules governing how ballots are cast, or exposure to the virus has caused Black and Hispanic voter participation to drop. According to the report’s analysis, white voters did not seem to be affected by the Covid pandemic in terms of voter participation.
At the height of the pandemic in 2020, the Democrats stayed on message about the dangers of person-to-person contact. This led the Democrats to stop canvassing while the Republicans “boasted that they were knocking on a million doors a week.” Although the Democrats had hoped for a “massive blue tide” centered around Trump’s handling of the pandemic, the Democrats “narrowly avoided a total nightmare” in the legislature and in state offices.
Since then, the Democratic Party continues to have problems attracting minority voters towards its ranks. A poll published by the New York Times in November 2023 shows that 22% of Black voters in battle ground states would support Trump over Biden in 2024. Since the 2022 midterms, Black voter turnout for the Democrats has been weak.
Support for the Democratic Party has waned since the pandemic. According to the Associated Press, more than 1 million in 43 states have left the Democratic Party and joined the Republicans. Among the reasons expressed in 2022 was the Democrats’ “inability to quell violent crimes,” the party’s “focus on racial justice” and mandatory Covid-19 vaccines.
From June 2021 to 2022, “more than 1 million people became Republicans compared to about 630,000 who became Democrats.”
The erosion of Democratic Party voters nationally continues this year with the party continuing to lose Black voters and Hispanic voters aged 18 to 29. Today, in a new low, only 27% of adults identify as Democrats and only 43% identify as leaning Democratic according to a Gallup poll.
Although the Democrats retain an advantage among Black and Hispanic voters it continues to weaken. According to Gallup, in 1999, 44% of Hispanics identified as Democrats. Since 2000, Democrat Hispanics have continued to drop each year. By 2020 the percentage of Democrat Hispanics had dropped to 31%. In 2023, only 26% identified as Democrats.
However, the Hispanics leaving the Democrats are not going to the Republicans. In 1999, Hispanics accounted for 17% of the Republicans. By 2023, only 15% Hispanics identified as Republican. Hispanics, according to the polling have gravitated towards the Independents, jumping from 39% in 1999 to 55% in 2023.
This trend was mirrored in the Texas Tribune about apathy within El Paso’s voters.
Dear reader, I hope you appreciate this article. Before reading more, I ask that you consider my work and make a small donation to help keep this publication open for everyone. El Paso lacks news diversity. I offer 20+ years of historical knowledge about El Paso’s politics and public policy. Media diversity matters. Make a small donation today to help keep my work going for another 20+ years. Thank you.
The Latino Vote
As Hispanics continue to dominate America’s demographics, the so-called Latino vote has been suggested as the voters who will make a difference in future elections. Since at least 2002, the Democrats had banked on the growth of the Hispanic demographic as the emerging Democratic majority.
The problem with Hispanics within the Democratic Party leadership is that they do not understand Latinos’ motivations. Many of today’s Hispanics arrived after the Civil Rights Movement of the 1960’s making civil rights not a driving issue for them. In the minds of Democrats, “all Latinos need to be talked to like farmworkers or the undocumented…even though that’s less than 95%” of America’s Latinos.
Even though the Latino vote has not materialized in the last 22 years since the Democrats predicted it would become the Democratic majority, both parties continue to court America’s Hispanic votes.
Somos PAC announced last month that it would spend $33 million to mobilize Hispanic voters in eight states, including Arizona, Georgia, Texas and Nevada. The PAC’s hope is to help reverse Joe Biden’s low support from Hispanic voters.
Even as the Democrats are trying to woe the Hispanic vote, 46% of Hispanic voters support Trump over Biden’s 40%, according to a March 2024 New York Times/Sienna poll. Trump’s lead from Hispanic voters has continued to grow over the last four years.
Latino voters now account for 15% of America’s electorate. Republicans have been supported by at least a third of Latinos who cast ballots each election cycle. In 2004, George W. Bush received 40% of the Hispanic vote. But will the nation’s Hispanic voter be a factor in November? El Paso’s voters suggest not.
El Paso’s Voters Suggest Hispanic Voters Will Not Be A Factor In November
El Paso, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, is about 83% Hispanic. It is also a Democratic Party stronghold. As such, El Paso provides a litmus test on what to expect from Hispanic voters in November.
Since 2000, El Paso voter participation has been less than 50%, except for 2016 and 2020. The pandemic mobilized voters in 2020. However, by 2022, El Paso voters are in a downtrend leading towards November. The Texas Tribune’s article suggests that El Paso’s voters aren’t excited about the November elections. This suggests that the Democrats are unlikely to benefit much from the young voters nor the Hispanics going into November.
Although El Paso’s Republicans have not been a factor in El Paso’s elections, nonetheless, it is important to compare their turnout to better understand the voting dynamics going into November.
As can be observed, El Paso’s Republican voters mirror their Democratic brethren in voter participation, albeit at smaller numbers. However, a jump in Democratic voters appeared in 2016 and again in 2020. But by 2022, El Paso Democrats and Republicans both returned to normal patterns. The Texas Tribune article suggests that the November elections for both party participants will remain as before.
Generally, voter apathy among Black, Hispanic voters across the nation remains a problem for the Democrats. The experience of the El Paso voters as detailed by the Texas Tribune expresses the reasons why. For Biden, this voter apathy is a problem for his reelection campaign.
Notes:
- Paul S. Herrnson and Charles Stewart III, “The Impact of COVID-19, Election Policies, and Partisanship on Voter Participation in 2020 U.S. Election,” Election Law Journal Rules, Politics, and Policy, Volume 22, Issue Number 2.
- Voter ballot tabulation notes:
Because voter turnout by jurisdiction is governed by several factors including party allegiance, jurisdictional laws, voter preferences, access to voter records and other factors, to ensure the best possible comparison, we have tabulated voter engagement based on the highest office in each election cycle to ensure turnout is based on county-wide offices. When possible, we used the presidential candidates or the candidates for governor.