With a little less than six months to go before the midterm elections, the immigration issue is once again shaping the debate across the nation. Debating immigration is not new but unlike previous elections, the debate has evolved beyond stricter border enforcement towards solving economic issues through some form of immigration reform. Instead of mass deportations, voters are now driven by economic concerns tied to deportation policies, border security and labor shortages. These issues are now creating political uncertainty for both Democrats and Republicans.
Recent polling and political analysis suggest immigration remains important to voters, but its influence may no longer dominate campaigns the way it did during the height of the border surges in 2023 and 2024. In Texas, where immigration has long energized Republican turnout, strategists in both parties are now acknowledging that immigration’s tone needs changing.
The factor driving the changing immigration narrative among the Republicans is voters’ large disapproval of the Trump administration’s immigration policies. More voters disapprove of Trump’s immigration policies than approve of them, according to an April 2026 University of Texas poll. While 38% of those polled strongly disapproved of recent immigration policies, 34% support them.
Among Texas voters, recent polling shows that immigration or border security has dropped from a high of 68% in February 2024 as the most important concern for them to a low of 20% last month. Among Democrats the trend is similar with immigration and border security being a top issue for 14% in February 2024 to 3% last month. The results for Independents have also dropped to 3% last month from a high of 44% in February 2024.
The polling suggests voters aren’t prioritizing immigration and border security as they once had forcing Republicans to shift their messaging.
Republicans Retool Messaging on Border Crisis and Mass Deportations
For Republicans, the issue of immigration remains central to their national political messaging. Republican candidates continue to emphasize border security and support for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The Trump administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement agenda still resonates strongly among conservative voters, particularly in rural areas and with voters concerned about crime and national security.
However, Republican strategists now face the challenge that border crossings have declined significantly compared to the peak years of the Biden administration, reducing the urgency of “border crisis” messaging that helped them in the last election. The changing dynamics now faced by many Republican campaigns are interior enforcement and deportation policies that is creating divisions among the Republicans. Voters now want a balance approach to immigration policies that include both border security and expanded legal pathways towards citizenship.
Some GOP lawmakers from competitive districts, especially in Texas and Florida, have begun supporting limited immigration reforms aimed at stabilizing industries such as agriculture and construction, both of which rely heavily on immigrant labor. Texas Republican Rep. Mónica De La Cruz (R-TX15) is attempting to balance border enforcement with economic realities in South Texas, where Hispanic voters and business interests increasingly influence Republican elections.
But the issue of immigration isn’t only changing the political messaging among Republicans, it is also forcing the Democrats to change as well.
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Democrats Redefine the Immigration Issue Along Economic Concerns
Democrats, meanwhile, are trying to redefine the immigration debate around economic contributions, workforce needs, and what they describe as excessive enforcement tactics under Republican-led policies. Democrat leaders are arguing that the mass deportation efforts are threatening the economy by keeping immigrant labor away from the job sites out of fear.
Home builders across Texas are reporting building less houses because of rising prices and a shortage of workers due immigration enforcement efforts.
Although Democrats continue to push for immigration reform allowing for work permits and pathways towards citizenship, their political narratives around immigration are becoming more cautious, in part due to voters placing blame on the Biden administration’s border policies that led to the so-called “border crisis.”
El Paso’s congresswoman, Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-TX16) has become one of the party’s leading voices on immigration reform. Escobar is framing the Democrat’s immigration narrative of addressing border security while also addressing labor shortages by creating immigration reform through bipartisan support.
The Dignity Act’s Transformation
When Escobar arrived in Washington in 2020, the Democrats were in control of congress and immigration reform seemed an easy win. Escobar helped push legislation that provided an eight-year pathway for citizenship, but the Democratic party-leadership wasn’t interested in immigration reform, leaving Escobar without the support of her party.
Escobar recently told the Texas Tribune that “it was a real wake-up call for me on the politics within my own party.” Looking past the Democrats’ narratives while looking closely at the immigration policies under the Democrats the disconnect between the two becomes readily visible. To this date, even with the headlines of mass deportations, Barack Obama deported more immigrants than Donald Trump has to date. Obama deported 3.1 million while, Trump has deported around 605,000 plus an additional 1.9 million migrants who self-deported for a total of 2.5 million migrants leaving the country under Trump, according to figures compiled by the Trump administration.
Although the headlines suggest otherwise, the facts show the opposite is true when it comes to the differences in immigration policies between the two parties.
Escobar added that “it really was during that first two years of the Biden administration that I realized, No. 1, we’re not going to get this done as a Democratic-only bill,” adding that she believed the Democrats would lose the 2024 elections “because of immigration.”
Because of her party’s indifference to the issue of immigration, in 2022 Escobar started looking for a solution through a bipartisan approach. She teamed up with Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL27) to introduce Diginidad or the Dignity Act. The Dignity Act was initially a comprehensive immigration reform bill that included a 7-year pathway towards citizenship. To get past resistance from the Republicans, the pathway towards citizenship was removed in the latest version, instead providing renewable provisions allowing immigrants to work and travel while not allowing them to seek citizenship.
The proposal has attracted support from both parties, including de la Cruz, along with a coalition of business and faith organizations. The latest version includes expanded work authorization programs, visa reforms and a structured legal status pathway that is tied to restitution payments and background checks.
Escobar now warns Democrats that their failure to address immigration concerns could cost the upcoming party elections. For De La Cruz, support for the proposal reflects the changing politics of South Texas, where Republicans had gained ground among Hispanic voters while also facing pressure from employers seeking stable labor workforces. She argues that Republicans should be focusing on the “the worst of the worst” to deport rather than broad sweeps across Texas.
The Likely Trigger Points for Voters
The shift among voters with recent immigration policies and a declining economy is exposing the likely trigger points for the voters going into November’s midterm elections. Nationally and especially in Texas, the trigger points include border security. The decline in border crossings no longer allows the Republicans to frame political messaging with images of disorder on the southern border. Voters’ support for mass deportations has waned after the high-profile deaths of U.S. citizens at the hands of ICE agents. Democrats are using the mass deportations to mobilize younger and Latino voters who are uncomfortable with the violence around deportations making headlines.
However, the largest voter trigger point is anxiety over the economy. As the economy continues to worsen, voters are focusing more on the economy than on immigration.
Texas is now becoming a major testing ground for Hispanic political shifts that helped Republicans make gains among working-class Latino voters in South Texas. With a narrow lead at the House, Republicans are being forced to tone down immigration and focus on the economy.
The Republicans are facing economic anxiety among Texas voters as urban and suburban voters increasingly prioritize economic concerns over immigration rhetoric alone.
Immigration will not fade in the political rhetoric in the upcoming elections but it may be forced into the background as candidates, especially those running on the Republican ticket are forced to retool around the economy which includes a declining workforce putting additional pressure on the country’s economy. The Dignity Act provides a first step narrative palatable to both parties. It, or another version of it, will become the future of America’s immigration policies after the midterms are settled in November.