Since late 2023 there have been rumors circulating among Democrats that Oscar Leeser would challenge Veronica Escobar for her congressional seat in addition to running for the county judge seat currently held by Ricardo Samaniego.
Oscar Leeser was first elected in 2012 and chose not to run for reelection in 2016 after being diagnosed with an illness. In 2020, Leeser ran for the mayoral seat, taking office for his second term the following year. As mayor, Leeser led the city council to vote twice against property tax increases. After serving two terms, Leeser termed out and left office in January. Renard Johnson was sworn in as El Paso’s latest mayor on January 6.
Ricardo Samaniego was first elected in 2019 and is serving his second term in office. The County does not have term limits. His current term ends next year. If Samaniego elects to run for a third term, he will likely have to defend his seat in the March 2026 primaries and run again on November 3, 2026, should he prevail in the primaries.
Samaniego’s term in office has been marked by the attempt to issue $400 million in certificates of obligation – which are non-voter approved debt – for the University Medical Center of El Paso (UMC). The county’s attempt to issue the non-voter approved debt was stymied by a petition filed the Libre Initiative. The county commissioners are now discussing issuing $52 million in certificates of obligation. The vote on the COs is expected on March 17.
Dear reader, I hope you appreciate this article. Before reading more, I ask that you consider my work and make a small donation to help keep this publication open for everyone. El Paso lacks news diversity. I offer 20+ years of historical knowledge about El Paso’s politics and public policy. Media diversity matters. Make a small donation today to help keep my work going for another 20+ years. Thank you.
In addition to the attempt to issue the non-voter approved debt in 2022, Samaniego also voted to give himself a pay raise of $19,200, raising his salary to $152,700 in 2023.
On April 22, 2024, Samaniego missed a county commissioners meeting after police became involved in an “altercation” between Samaniego and his girlfriend after the girlfriend accused Samaniego of “cheating” on “social media with another female.”
Because of the persistent rumors that Leeser will be challenging Samaniego for his seat in the upcoming primary election, we polled over a thousand active El Paso voters to see what a matchup between Leeser and Samaniego would be like.
Our Poll Results
On February 25 and 26 we polled El Paso voters who actively vote in the primaries. We asked “if the county judge election were held today, would you vote for 1. Oscar Leeser, 2. Ricardo Samaniego.”
According to those responding to our text message poll, Oscar Leeser would win against Ricardo Samaniego in the primary. To get a better understanding of the voters, we first polled the “party loyalist” voters who generally support the candidate that the party favors, although technically the Democratic Party does not support one candidate over the other in the primary.
However, it is well understood that the party leadership will make clear who the preferred candidate is. Samaniego did not fare well in the first poll. Our second poll targeted a random set of voters who generally vote in the primary. Leeser led Samaniego significantly among this demographic according to those that responded to our poll.
As can be observed in the pie chart, the active voters generally prefer Oscar Leeser over Ricardo Samaniego in a head-to-head matchup. What is important to note about the poll is that the inherent bump from being an incumbent does not seem to help Samaniego, neither does a bump from party loyalists.
We reached out to Oscar Leeser to ask if he would be running for the county judge seat. Leeser did not respond to our multiple requests for comment. Should he respond, we will update this article to add his comments.
If you are interested in participating in future polls, click here to join our Polling Club.