Oscar Leeser and Dee Margo are headed towards a runoff election sometime in December. Runoff elections are scheduled 45 days after the votes ae canvassed. In addition to the Leeser-Margo runoff there are also runoffs between Alexsandra Annello being challenged by Miriam Gutierrez. In District 4, Joe Molina will face off against Sam Morgan.
There is a general narrative that incumbents face a difficult time in runoff elections.
To validate this notion, the El Paso Politics analyzed city elections since 1998.
According to our analysis, there have been 13 runoff elections between incumbents and their challengers. Only one mayoral race, in 2005, was between an incumbent mayor and a challenger.
On May 9, 2005, incumbent Mayor Joe Wardy was forced into a runoff by challenger John Cook. Cook won the runoff, 51% to 49%.
There were 12 city council runoffs between incumbents and challengers between 1998 and 2019.
According to our analysis, of the twelve incumbent city council representatives forced into a runoff election, 62% lost the runoff. This includes the mayoral runoff between Cook and Wardy.
Our analysis seems to indicate that incumbents face difficulty keeping their seats when forced into runoff.
It is important that readers note that this is the first time a city runoff election will be held in December. Previous runoff elections were held in June. Also, the runoff election will like fall right before the Christmas holiday, or right after it. This will likely affect turn out.
List of runoff elections we analyzed:
|Manny Ramirez, incumbent||44%|
|John Cook, incumbent||59%|
|Jay J. Armes||39%|
|Paul Escobar, incumbent||61%|
|Elvia Hernandez, incumbent||38%|
|Larry Medina, incumbent||38%|
|Joe Wardy, incumbent||49%|
|Ann Morgan Lilly||60%|
|Susan Austin, incumbent||40%|
|Jose Lozano, incumbent||54%|
|Paul Escobar, incumbent||39%|
|Vivian Rojas, incumbent||39%|
|Melina Castro, incumbent||32%|
|Lyda Ness Garcia||44%|
|Ann Morgan Lilly, incumbent||56%|
|Carl Robinson, incumbent||51%|