The question by many is why is Nancy Pelosi so reluctant to impeach Donald Trump? On the surface it looks like Pelosi does not want the distraction of impeachment to dominate the 2020 national elections. That makes sense as part of the equation. But I believe there is more to the Pelosi impeachment equation.
The 2020 presidential election will be between Donald Trump and a Democrat challenger. Even if Pelosi were to allow impeachment to begin the impeachment process today, it is very likely that Trump will still be in office by the time of the elections.
For the Democrats, an impeachment could be a distraction for 2020.
However, if the political talk of impeachment and the investigations continue without an impeachment process, they would continue to expose the corruption by Donald Trump without the distraction of an impeachment. Even without an impeachment process, the evidence gathering continues.
The evidence gathered by the Democrats not only serve for the impeachment of Trump, but they also serve to use as political weapons against Trump in 2020. The more evidence the more damage Donald Trump suffers on election night.
In other words, Nancy Pelosi is allowing impeachment to proceed by allowing investigations and subpoenas, but she is not allowing the Democrats to call it an impeachment.
It is a simple strategy.
The constant noise about impeachment keeps the issue of Trump corruption in the forefront of the 2020 elections. Is it enough to get voters to vote against Trump? It doesn’t matter to the strategy.
The strategy is to give the Democrats the best tools to win the national elections, both the presidency and the legislature.
There are three possible outcomes.
Donald Trump loses the election and the Republicans gain control of the House and keep the Senate. Or Trump loses and the Democrats keep the House and gain the Senate.
Under these scenarios Trump loses “bigly,” as Trump would say.
With a Democrat executive in office, the Department of Justice would likely indict Trump on the issue of obstruction of justice. Even with a GOP congress, the indictment of Trump would continue.
In the second scenario, Donald Trump wins and the Democrats keep the House and gain control of the Senate. In this scenario, Nancy Pelosi’s “pocket impeachment” would stymie Donald Trump immediately after he assumes his second term. The evidence gathering now would help Pelosi’s clan under a Trump second term.
Even if the Democrats do not get control of the Senate, the impeachment process at the House would keep Trump distracted in his second term like it does now. The evidence or the continued dysfunctional government might even be enough to get enough Senators to impeach Trump.
Regardless the continued legislative stalemate would keep Trump from delivering on his promises to his base.
The third scenario is the worst case.
Under this scenario, Donald Trump wins and the Congress comes under GOP control. This scenario is unlikely as the inability for Trump to enact promised legislation will continue through the 2020 elections as the House remains under the control of the Democrats. That, and the constant noise about Trump wrongdoing would likely force the voters to keep the House in the Democrats’ hands.
This is where the Nancy Pelosi strategy makes sense.
Should Pelosi allow an impeachment process to start, it may be detrimental to the Democrats during the 2020 elections. Keeping impeachment as a “back pocket” option allows the Democrats to leverage the noise of Trump corruption through the 2020 elections without damaging the party’s chances in 2020.
If anything the noise of impeachment helps the Democrats in 2020 as long as it is noise and not an actual ongoing official process.